Oil climbs as market steadies after US tariff concerns

Oil prices ticked higher on Monday, rebounding after declines last week on concerns about a global trade war, as investors appeared to shrug off US President Donald Trump’s latest threat, this time on steel and aluminum imports.Brent crude futures were up 74 cents, or 1%, to $75.40 a barrel by 0938 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude also climbed 1%, or 72 cents, at $71.72 a barrel. The market posted its third consecutive weekly decline last week on concerns about a global trade war.”It’s tariff uncertainty which is the name of the game. This affects risk appetite in general and has spillover effects into oil,” said Harry Tchilinguiran, group head of research at Onyx Capital.Trump said he will announce on Monday 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, in another major escalation of his trade policy overhaul.Just a week ago, the president announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, but suspended those for the neighboring countries the next day.There are concerns that tariffs could dampen global economic growth and energy demand. But in light of Trump’s temporary backdown last week, investors appeared to be shrugging off the steel and aluminum tariff threat for now, Tony Sycamore, a Sydney-based analyst at IG said.”The market has realized tariff headlines are likely to continue in the weeks and months ahead,” he said, adding that there was an equal chance they could be walked back or even increased at some point in the near future.”So perhaps investors are coming to the conclusion that it’s not the best course of action to react to every headline negatively.”China’s retaliatory tariffs on some US exports are due to take effect on Monday, with no sign as yet of progress in talks between Beijing and Washington.Oil and gas traders are seeking waivers from Beijing for US. crude and liquefied natural gas imports.Trump said on Sunday that the US is making progress with Russia to end the Ukraine war, but declined to provide details about any communications he had with Russian President Vladimir Putin.Sanctions imposed on Russian oil trade on January 10 disrupted Moscow’s supplies to its top clients China and India.Washington also stepped up pressure on Iran last week, with the US Treasury imposing new sanctions on a few individuals and tankers that help ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China.Sanctions on Iran and failure to reach a nuclear deal are upside risks to oil prices even though Trump’s policies are aimed at driving energy prices lower, Citi analysts said in a note.”We see oil likely trading sideways to down over the next month or so, with the fundamental downward pressure building on crude in our base case throughout the year,” they said.Brent is forecast to average $60 to $65 a barrel in the second half of 2025 as Trump will be persistent in his desire to lower energy prices, and he will ultimately prove to be a bearish influence on the oil market, Citi said.